Water is the key to almost everything natural that happens at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. That much is clear. But what is the outlook for our upcoming “wet season?” The answer, it will come as no surprise, is far from clear. 

The Harney Basin receives nearly all its relatively scant annual precipitation between September and May. In a statistically average year —not as common as you might think— the lowlands of the basin receive roughly 10-11 inches of precipitation including about 20 inches of snow. But reality is more complicated than that. This past winter was extremely dry while the winter before that saw copious precipitation that filled Malheur Lake and even flooded parts of the town of Burns. So what can we expect this coming winter?  

What we do know is that a powerful El Niño weather pattern is taking shape—a Pacific Ocean temperature distribution that has world-wide effects. Here on the Pacific Coast of North American, such a pattern traditionally leads to above-average precipitation in Central and Southern California and a drier than average winter in the Pacific Northwest. We also know that much of the northern Pacific Ocean is much warmer than average. 

What does that mean for the Harney Basin?  

Looking at the long-term forecasts from the National Weather Service for December through March—Malheur’s wettest  months—the best guess is that our region will be in the in-between zone this winter: not as wet as California nor as dry as Washington and British Columbia are likely to be. That doesn’t necessarily mean average precipitation here, just that the odds of being either wet or dry are about even. 

There’s something else in the long-term forecasts. It looks likely that warmer than average temperatures will dominate the region to the north of Malheur this winter. This  makes sense with so much heat stored in our ocean and reflects our generally warming climate. This adds another uncertainty to the upcoming winter—even if we have good storms we may see less snow accumulation than average. This happened last winter, too. 

If you’re now feeling uncertain, so is pretty much everyone else. Malheur exists in a world that endures extremes of wet and dry, and which pattern will prevail this winter is hard to predict. Stay tuned. 

– W. Tweed, Board President