As we leave the winter of 2025-26 behind, we can have no doubt but that interesting times are ahead. I could make this statement in several different contexts, but let’s focus on the most critical of them all – water.
Malheur National Wildlife Refuge exists as a result of the presence of two natural phenomena – a geographical basin and water to fill it sufficiently to create wetlands and lakes. As a result, since the end of the Pleistocene Ica Age some 10,000+ years ago, migratory birds have sought out what we now call the Harney Basin.
We all know that the amount of water that flows into the basin varies greatly from year to year. Last year was uncommonly wet. This year, the weather systems that bring moisture to eastern Oregon have marched to a different drummer, and we will remember this winter as a very dry one.
Across almost all the interior west, spring runoff this year is forecast to fall far below average flows. In many areas the shortfall this summer will be severe. This reflects, as you would expect, less than average precipitation, but that’s not the whole story. This past winter the West has seen not only a relatively dry winter but also an unprecedentedly warm one. These mild temperatures mean that much of the water that did fall from the sky this past winter fell as rain, not snow, and that snowpacks in many areas are scant or even non-existent. At the same time, warm temperatures have caused uncommonly high levels of evaporation, which further reduces surface runoff.
This story applies to a very broad region, but we should make no mistake but that it applies very specifically this year to the Harney Basin and the Malheur Refuge. To be perfectly blunt, the inflow of water into our refuge this spring and summer will be much below average and only a tiny fraction of what we received last year.
What does this affect? Everything we care about. Both Malheur’s migratory birds and its resident species rely on Harney Basin’s wetlands and lakes, and this summer these areas will be greatly reduced. The same lack of water will also stress the basin’s farmers who will need to pump more water out of the ground, an activity that further stresses regional wetlands.
The big question here cannot yet be answered. Either this has been a very anomalous winter, or, as some climate models are suggesting, this is our first introduction to a new sort of winter that will come to our region more frequently as a result of a warming climate. Right now, it is too soon to know which scenario applies.
In coming months, this newsletter will continue to tell you all about how our refuge and its natural inhabitants are dealing with a summer of water scarcity. We’ll keep you posted.
– W. Tweed, Board President
